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If the research firm’s $190 billion taker volume estimate proves accurate, it’d represent a more than eightfold increase from the $22 billion taker turnover seen last year.
Potentially boding well for the Macquarie forecast are at least two factors. First, there are signs of turnover increases across a variety of yes/no exchanges. Second, volume surged to start September with those spikes arriving even before the NFL season kicked off.
As Macquarie analyst Chad Beynon points out, prediction markets generated $4.3 billion in taker volume during the first week of September without any help from the NFL, building on momentum from the 2026 World Cup. However, the NFL’s impact was immediate, with taker volume hitting a daily record during Week 1 of the campaign.
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Following the vote, IGA Chairman David Bean said in a statement that the Senate “did the right thing” by not advancing the bill. The Clarity Act “could have expanded CFTC commodities authority” without clear protections, Bean said, but he cautioned that “it is not the end of this fight”.
The AGA declined to comment Thursday, and directed iGB to the June letter.
The failure to secure passage of the bill is a stinging defeat for both crypto-connected prediction operators and the CFTC, which has fully embraced the advance of digital assets under Chairman Michael Selig. Interest groups and political action committees had spent countless hours and millions of dollars lobbying for the legislation.
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I’ll be behind the scenes helping tie up the loose ends, and then I’ll be taking a much-needed vacation staycation while I contemplate the next chapter.
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