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Compared to the 2021 licensing round, the KSA adopted a more granular and stringent approach to its licence renewal process. This was expected following new policy rules set out by the regulator in September 2025.

One such rule was for licensees that had faced compliance enforcement during the five years operating in the Netherlands.

At the time KSA announced: “Providers that made mistakes in the past five years must explain during the application process how they have learned from previous mistakes and how they intend to prevent recurrence. If we find this explanation insufficient, the permit may be denied or additional conditions and restrictions may be imposed.” 

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With all that in mind, it’s not surprising that Macquarie expects sports event contracts will drive approximately 80% of taker volume this year, but Beynon sees other categories growing over the long term.

“We expect non-sports categories such as economics, politics, crypto, and entertainment to gain share over time,” says the analyst.

Prediction market operators are on legal losing streaks, confirming that Beynon is onto something when he says the regulatory environment is the biggest risk facing the industry.

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In July the Commission said its investigation had discovered the supplier had failed to maintain adequate anti-money laundering and customer due diligence controls in the UK.

It considered suspending Evolution’s licence, but the supplier acted swiftly, carrying out ring-fencing controls across Europe to prevent its games from being used in grey markets.

Evolution’s case against Black Cube continues. It even sought to add Playtech as a defendant in April.