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Assuming that 8% spurt is realized, it’d be impressive because since the end of the 2025 football season, only Missouri and Alberta, Canada joined the live and legal sports betting party with Arkansas opening to DraftKings and FanDuel earlier this year.

Prediction markets have proven effective at attracting sharp bettors and high-rollers who are often limited or banned by traditional sportsbooks. However, consumer surveys indicate that when given the choice between a sportsbook and a yes/no exchange, most recreational bettors still prefer the traditional sportsbook interface. That dynamic helps explain why prediction markets remain in second place.

“Prediction markets represent a meaningful second channel for NFL wagering but still small on a relative scale, reflecting a new sector with less of an installed base,” observes EKG.

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He argues that some lawyers and licensees believe the Commission’s presentation of cases is detached from the operational reality but feel they have little option other than to accept the “regulator’s truth” when settling.

“The Commission’s approach to reporting may well create the inaccurate impression that the industry is inherently non-compliant,” he adds. A more balanced account might place failures alongside the majority of licensees that pass assessments or lead on customer wellbeing, although Waugh considers such a shift unlikely.

The “too easy to get a licence” argument doesn’t necessarily hold up to scrutiny, to be fair. Andrew Bentley, co-founder and CEO of regulatory technology startup LiSense, is one who rejects the suggestion.

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Data Protection Commissioner Maria Christofidou said her office had reevaluated a 2022 legal opinion and now recognised a potential legal basis for more granular access to banking information.

Various MPs voiced concerns about the risk of privacy violations in accessing this data, and the potential social stigma around the information being shared.

Christofidou also floated the idea of issuing GMI recipients with a special card for in-person verification at gambling venues, but several MPs warned this could stigmatise welfare recipients.