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As has been widely documented, sports event contracts are currently the lifeblood of the prediction market industry, but Bernstein notes that won’t be the case on a permanent basis. In fact, the research firm estimates that sports derivatives’ share of industry volume will decline to 35% in 2035, indicating that the aforementioned volume increase will be led by other categories.
The research firm estimates that by 2035, financial derivatives, including event contracts linked to commodities, cryptocurrencies and stocks, will account for 49% of turnover on yes/no exchanges, topping sports to become the largest volume driver. The research firm sees event contracts tied to key performance indicators (KPIs) leading the charge.
“We expect new products such as KPI markets, which allow users to trade a single corporate metric, such as production, deliveries, or subscriber growth, rather than the stock price itself,” observe the analysts. “Further, perp futures are expanding from crypto to commodities and single stock perps.”
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Costes was involved with GREF at a time when numerous European regulators, including the ANJ, focused on tightening advertising regulations and boosting player protection frameworks. The forum thanked Costes for his dedicated service.
Replacing Miller as treasurer is Ian Angus, director of policy at the UK Gambling Commission where, since 2020, he has been closely engaged in policy development. This includes the Gambling Act white paper and its recommendations on financial risk assessments.
His appointment signals a continuation of UK influence within GREF, even as the Gambling Commission undergoes personnel changes. Ruth Evans was named the new Gambling Commission chair, taking over from Charles Counsell after over a year in the position.
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The goal is to make it easier for licencees to find technical information in one definitive source rather searching across multiple libraries. Most of the explanatory notes in the revisions refer to adaptations from MICS and other sources. This process has been years in the making, Eberwein said, with work stopping and starting at various points.
“We had various iterations of the drafts internally probably going back at least a decade, and just never made it to the finish line for various reasons,” he explained.
The board is hoping that the proposal drafts or more or less finalised, though there will likely be input from stakeholders during the comment period and at the hearing. One group that typically weighs in on such matters, the Association of Gaming Equipment Manufacturers, did not respond to a request for comment by Friday’s deadline for publication. Depending on the amount of feedback or potential objections from the Nevada Gaming Commission, the new standards could be adopted and published by year’s end.