Scruffy Duck

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“It’s worth remembering this isn’t foreign ground. GiG ran Rizk, Guts, Kaboo and Thrills until it sold them to Betsson in 2020 to pay down a bond. A previous regime decided B2C and B2B didn’t mix. The current one clearly thinks otherwise.”

Ultimately, Ahlberg sees the acquisition as opening two possible paths for GiG, with the balance between B2B and B2C likely to depend on how each business performs. “I definitely think this business will become a larger part of GiG,” he concludes.

“And then I guess we will see. I mean if this business really grows fast, then it might become more B2C, but as I see it now, it feels like a kind of a 50-50 story where you have both opportunities there.

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At the same time, prediction market operators are facing regulatory tussles in the US. State regulators are moving to shut down the firms under gambling laws. The companies say their contracts should be regulated at the federal level as derivatives. 

However, the sector has grown substantially despite such disputes. Bernstein predicted in April that annual prediction market volume could reach $1 trillion by 2030. The research estimated volume was around $51 billion in 2025 and could grow to around $240 billion in 2026. 

The partnership with Yahoo Finance wraps up as prediction markets push for broader distribution across financial media, sports, and entertainment platforms. For Polymarket, the loss of the Yahoo Finance hub is one distribution channel, but other partnerships remain intact.

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In 2025, Brazil collected almost BRL10 billion ($1.97 billion) in tax revenue from the licensed sector. In the first seven months of this year alone, BRL8.7 billion generated by the activity was delivered to public coffers. The Federal Revenue Service itself estimates that the sector should reach BRL16 billion in revenue during 2026.

Besides revenue collection, another concern is legal and economic. Companies have paid over BRL2.5 billion for licences since the sector’s regulation. Certainly, the end of the activity would lead to litigation to recover the amounts paid and compensation for investments made. Furthermore, the revenue from betting is already included in the Annual Budget Law and the Budget Guidelines Law, which define the priorities for federal government spending.

What worries the sector is not just the threat of drastic measures against legalised betting. So far, the government has consistently fallen short in its attempts to curb the illegal market, which still represents almost half of the segment.