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Kalshi’s compliance department uncovered a series of large trades made by Santos throughout February 2026 involving contracts that would pay out based on whether he attended the State of the Union address on 24 February.
The exchange reported that Santos then issued public statements regarding his attendance, some deemed false or misleading, that were deliberately aimed at influencing the price of “Yes” or “No” contracts connected to his attendance.
Kalshi stated that these statements successfully moved market prices and that Santos realised profits totalling $17,839.57 from the trades. After detecting Santos’ trades, Kalshi froze his account then referred the matter to federal authorities, NPR reported.
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Even before the primetime matchup in Kansas City, it became abundantly clear that the industry would shatter previous marks for weekly activity. The AFC West showdown bolstered the already robust totals. Overall, volume for the week hit a record $15.9 billion, according to Bank of America, up 16% from a week earlier.
The pure-play prediction market-operators, Polymarket and Kalshi, emerged from Week 1 as the clear winners. On one hand, Kalshi’s market share lead narrowed over its competitors, falling to 82% for the week ended 13 September, down from 86% a week earlier.
Still, Kalshi had a nine-fold lead over Polymarket, its next closest rival. Polymarket, meanwhile, led the group with 762,000 app downloads, edging Kalshi, DraftKings and FanDuel in the category. The downloads represented a 13,509% weekly increase and 25% of total category downloads, Polymarket wrote in a statement.
How to play Dragon Chase
“Of course there’s already a filing for daily leveraged futures baseball ETFs — which are basically the equivalent of a corked bat with eight holes drilled in the handle that’s been dipped in pine tar,” wrote Ben Johnson, head of client solutions at Morningstar, on X.
As of yet, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) hasn’t approved the aforementioned NHL futures ETFs.
For the right audience, likely professional traders and sophisticated retail investors, the CME futures on FutureSports indexes could amount to “Goldilocks” offerings because the derivatives aren’t standard sports bets nor are they carbon copies of the event contracts traded on prediction markets.
